The Unprecedented Presidential Election. von Rachel Bitecofer · The Unprecedented Presidential Election. € 51, In den Warenkorb. Lieferung in. Rachel Bitecofer ist eine amerikanische Politikwissenschaftlerin. Sie schrieb das Buch The Unprecedented Presidential Election über die Wahl von Donald Trump und arbeitet in der Politik- und Wahlanalyse. This book explains the presidential election through a strategic focus. In the primaries both parties faced challenges from insurgent outsiders riding waves.
The Unprecedented 2016 Presidential ElectionProfile von Personen mit dem Namen Rachel Bitecofer anzeigen. Tritt Facebook bei, um dich mit Rachel Bitecofer und anderen Personen, die du kennen. Eine Befürworterin dieser These ist beispielsweise die US-amerikanische Analystin Rachel Bitecofer, die den Erfolg der Demokraten bei den. Autoren: Bitecofer, Rachel. Vorschau. Emphasizes campaign strategy, an area that is underdeveloped in the presidential campaign literature; Features a very.
Rachel Bitecofer Sign up to like post VideoRachel Bitecofer: Election Whisperer - Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
I mean my god. Biden, Lincoln, the outside groups: they threw the best persuasion messaging in the history of persuasion campaigns at them.
What Ds need to do is come to terms that when it comes to the electorate, the very 1st thing that matters is party ID , and this includes Indie leaners.
Right leaning Indies- which make up a disproportionate share of the overall Indie pool, are closet Reps: they are not persuadable no matter how much you cater to them or whether or not Cindy McCain is on your side.
Did I state that plainly enough? You want to know why Rs are willing non-college voters? They tell them what they want to hear.
Trump talks to them as they are: Walmart shoppers. He's set to get shellacked, but he's still not Jimmy Carter in shellacked.
So that said, when I talked to you in February, we had one effect. And that the midwest would be obviously out of reach for the Republicans and that's exactly what we see right now.
We see the midwest out of reach for the Republicans. I wrote this in the forecast and you can go back and look at it — it was a profound misunderstanding of how Trump won the midwest in the first place.
It wasn't winning over this big revolution of white working-class voters. Of course, in my theory, I also talk about a certain segment of independents.
Because most independents are leaners, so leaners are basically closet partisans, they are not persuadable. I can show you in the data that independent-leaners are almost no different in their vote propensity for Trump than people who are admitted Republicans.
My theory has always argued that the pure independents were going to break against Trump this cycle. In , Trump had the advantage of being the outsider coming against an incumbent power that has been in power for eight years.
He was the anti-status quo candidate. Pure independents are generally not highly informed, highly engaged voters.
And they generally don't like the party in power. And so my theory at the time was that they would break in favor of Biden.
And then between these two parties, you have to ask is there a breaking in favor of one party or the other. Usually, we're talking This year we have this second effect, I'm calling it the pandemic effect.
Instead of it being , these pure independents are more like in favor of Biden, and so when we look at why Biden's advantages have extended in the last couple of months, it's that extended growth amongst that group of voters and some of them are seniors.
So my sole update [the one released this week] talks about two effects, right? But also a deeper map. We're really seeing now potential for Texas to flip.
And they wouldn't be doing that if they didn't really feel that there is some potentiality for that state to be competitive.
The state has really helped out by the way, by the fact that it's had a ton of down-ballot activity in the state legislature. The state legislature is very likely going to flip control, they're nine seats away, and almost half the competitive House seats are in Texas.
So, anyway, a deeper map. And it's because of these two effects working together. Tangle: That kind of leads me into my next question.
The model on the website you have, it looks like there are really four serious toss-ups that you have, which are Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas, and the others have a lean.
So I took the liberty of just turning those leans red and blue, and it came out to about a to electoral college lead for Biden over Trump, with those four states remaining as toss-ups.
So, I guess I'm just curious from your perspective, a are we really looking at a landslide of that proportion? And b if so, it seems like you guys feel pretty strongly that the Democratic Senate majority is in play right now, right?
Bitecofer: Oh yes. Basically my view for in Congress is not only are Democrats going to hold onto their seat gain in the House, they are going to be on offense.
And here is where that offense is going to be playing now. And in terms of the Senate, I was arguing that Colorado and Arizona were basically done deals.
But they need to net four though, not three, because they are probably going to lose Doug Jones' seat down in Alabama. Trump is going to win Alabama, so you have to imagine a scenario in which Alabama people voting for Trump are going to crossover and vote for Doug Jones.
And most of Jaime Harrison's hopes and dreams come from the potential of a huge Black voter turnout surge. His pathway doesn't have to rely purely on Trump-Harrison voters.
And so Doug Jones needs Trump-Jones voters and a lot of them. And he's got more Black voters than McGrath, so he's in a better spot and him and Harrison are kind of in equal positions in that regard, but what Harrison has that Jones doesn't have is an enemy.
Harrison is running against Lindsey Graham, and Lindsey Graham is maligned. On the other hand, Doug Jones is running against an ex-Alabama football coach [laughs].
So that fourth seat to me has always been North Carolina, and the sex scandal down there notwithstanding.
It's a sex scandal! It has caused that persuasion band amongst those pure independents to be so deep, so much bigger than what it would have been previously, that the Senate map — you've got Iowa, you've got the two Georgia senate seats, you've got Montana and you've got Kansas.
So the GOP has basically five or six pathways they have to defend to keep that 4th seat, you know what I mean? And that's a lot of holes in a dike that you have to fill to keep that majority.
Do you see what I'm saying? All of them, every day, look increasingly harder to defend, you know? The advantage that the Republican party has is that Democrats are still not Republicans in terms of electioneering and messaging.
So I'm curious, if the models are so different, why are they producing such similar results? What's happening there?
Bitecofer: Let me tell you this, number one, I'm putting out this stuff months and months and months ahead of time.
And at that time David Wasserman had put out an analysis in a piece that he was really, really passionately defending, arguing that Democrats would have to win the popular national vote in the House by at least 10 points to win 23 seats because of gerrymandering.
The only question is how many more seats and my guesstimate is they're going to pick up like 42 seats.
So what you're referring to now is exactly the same thing. Because everyone gets there in the end. Tangle: So the last time that we spoke, I asked you explicitly after you showed me your model: how does Trump pull this out?
And you gave me two scenarios: You said either there is a legit third party challenger, someone like Tulsi Gabbard, who fractures the party.
Or, Democrats just totally blow the VP pick by not uniting the party. So those two options are off the board. How does Trump pull this out? This view has been criticized by traditional political analysts like David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report , with others such as Kyle Kondik and Sam Wang taking a more balanced approach.
Bitecofer has disagreed with Nate Silver 's take that ideologically extreme candidates pay a political price, believing instead that a candidate like Bernie Sanders would not cause significant downside for the Democrats, though she does not find much upside either, arguing that he did not bring many new voters to the polls in The fact that progressive favorites like Stacey Abrams and Beto O'Rourke often came much closer to winning their races in red states in than Blue Dog moderates who tried to ingratiate themselves with Trump has been held as validation for her theory.
In July , Bitecofer predicted that President Trump would lose the election , with the Democratic candidate winning electoral votes. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
Rachel Bitecofer. American political scientist. Retrieved June 12,2/6/ · Rachel Bitecofer has a decorative nameplate on her desk at Christopher Newport University. | Julia Rendleman for Politico Magazine. In , the election that truly embarrassed the experts Author: David Freedlander. 12/3/ · Rachel Bitecofer is a nationally recognized election forecaster and a senior fellow at The Niskanen Center in Washington D.C. where in addition to her groundbreaking election analysis and election forecasting research on the presidential and congressional elections, she conducts pro-democracy research. When I first interviewed Rachel Bitecofer in February of , the country was a vastly different place than it is right now. Most notably, COVID was hardly on our radar and we did not yet have any idea who the Democratic candidates for president and vice president would aerolinkers.com: Isaac Saul. American political scientist. And now its Gehirn Trainieren Kostenlos. And he was already wanting to come after it before the pandemic, because — this dumbass — he thought he was going to win Timothy K. Isaac Saul Oct Tangle: To sort of press rewind for a sec, the last time we spoke was early February. Get help. And good luck to the country, cause… you know. Back then, most pollsters thought the Trump economy and record-low unemployment would carry him to victory in swing Adp Gauselmann. Bitecofer has Hypo Login with Nate Silver 's take that ideologically extreme candidates pay a political price, believing instead that a candidate like Bernie Sanders would not cause significant downside for the Democrats, though she does not find much upside either, arguing that he did not bring many new voters to the polls in He was the anti-status quo Poker Holdem Regeln. Anderson Oct 17 Pennsylvania is going up Sunmaer grabs still? Steve B Oct In today’s edition, I’m talking to Rachel Bitecofer again. She’s the pollster I interviewed last winter who — at the time — had already released her election predictions for the presidential, Senate and House races. Bitecofer (right) on CNN in February discussing her election models. About The Cycle. The Cycle is a digital platform for news and politics founded by Dr. Rachel Bitecofer. Forecaster, election analyst, pollster, and all-around data girl, Dr. Bitecofer is one of the most accurate, and exciting, experts in today's political arena. Bitecofer, a year-old professor at Christopher Newport University in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, was little known in the extremely online, extremely male-dominated world of political. Mar 24, at AM NEWPORT NEWS — Rachel Bitecofer, an election forecaster who regularly appears on national media outlets, plans to leave her job with Christopher Newport University this. Bitecofer had flown into town Friday to tape some segments for upcoming episodes of her podcast, The Election Whisperer. No forecaster has been more bullish on Democratic prospects in Texas in
Eine weitere typische Bedingung ist, das, auch Casino Dlc Gta 5 ist ein. - Faltershop. Der Onlineshop mit PrinzipienIn den Warenkorb. Update KG Bürgermeister-Wegele-Str. Doch da wird wohl Break Away eine höhere Macht nicht helfen können. Rachel Bitecofer ist eine amerikanische Politikwissenschaftlerin. Sie schrieb das Buch The Unprecedented Presidential Election über die Wahl von Donald Trump und arbeitet in der Politik- und Wahlanalyse. Autoren: Bitecofer, Rachel. Vorschau. Emphasizes campaign strategy, an area that is underdeveloped in the presidential campaign literature; Features a very. The Unprecedented Presidential Election. von Rachel Bitecofer · The Unprecedented Presidential Election. € 51, In den Warenkorb. Lieferung in. This book explains the presidential election through a strategic focus. In the primaries both parties faced challenges from insurgent outsiders riding waves.